Sunday, November 8, 2009

The House is Not Enough

The narrow vote (five vote margin)in the House of Representatives for the passage of the Obamacare bill just shows how far away the road to victory for Obama really is. Senator Harry Reid has already announced that there will be no vote in the Senate until 2010, within months of the Congressional elections. Once the Senate votes, there will be need to be a new bill refashioned by a conference committee composed of House and Senate members to be brought back before both the House and Senate. This is likely not to occur until the Spring of 2010, at which time every member of the House of Representatives will be scrambling to get re-elected. 80 Democratic Congressman are in Congressional Districts that McCain carried over Obama in 2008. All of these folks are in trouble over Obamacare. Obamacare is dead regardless of the House vote on Saturday.

To see why, one need only read today's article in the NY Times by Peter Goodman entitled "The Recession's Over, But Not the Layoffs." Jobs are far more important than Obamacare to the voters, as one would expect since nearly 60 percent of voters are now polling against Obamacare. Barely 40 percent of the electorate supports Obamacare at this point. What matters to voters is the economy and their jobs. Obama has forgotten this, but the public has not.

Goodman's article is an interesting one. He notes that for some reason (unstated in the article) businesses are continuing to lay off employees and are reluctant to hire new employees even as business improves. Why? Goodman really gives no reasons, but the reasons are obvious. Government mandates have made employees much, much more expensive. This means that businesses will find other ways to produce goods rather than hire much more expensive employees.

The entire Obama program, whether one thinks of Obamacare, Cap and Trade, or card check, simply reinforces businesses in their determination to avoid hiring. Only die-hard leftwing Democrats like Paul Krugman deny the obvious. But, then, Klugman is not a businessperson and he doesn't care what their problems may or may not be. But, at the end of the day, businesses make the hiring decisions, not politicians. Obama policies and threatened Obama policies are enough to convince to any rational businessperson to put off hiring as long as possible and to outsource to China and India as much as possible.

No surprises here.